Economic Half-measures

Things to come

[by Paul Krugman]

What’s going to happen, economically and politically, over the next few years? Nobody knows, of course. But I have a vision — what I think is the most likely course of events. It’s fairly grim — but not in the approved way. This vision lies behind a lot of what I’ve been writing, so it might clarify things for regular readers if I laid it out explicitly.

Start with the short-term economics. What we’re in right now is the aftermath of a giant financial crisis, which typically leads to a prolonged period of economic weakness — and this time isn’t different. A bolder economic policy early this year might have led to a turnaround, but what we actually got were half-measures. As a result, unemployment is likely to stay near its current level for a year or more.

And politically it’s hard to do anything about that. Those economic half-measures have landed the Obama administration in a trap: much of the political establishment now sees stimulus as having been discredited by events, so that it’s very hard to come back and scale the policy up to where it should have been in the first place. Also, with the apocalypse on hold, the deficit scolds have come back into their own, decrying any policy that actually involves spending money.

The result, then, will be high unemployment leading into the 2010 elections, and corresponding Democratic losses. These losses will be worse because Obama, by pursuing a uniformly pro-banker policy without even a gesture to popular anger over the bailouts, has ceded populist energy to the right and demoralized the movement that brought him to power.

Despite all this, the midterms probably won’t give Republicans the majority in the House. But the losses will be big enough to deny Obama a working majority for any major initiatives in the rest of his first term. (My guess is that he’ll be reelected thanks to the true awfulness of the Republican nominee). Since Republicans are dead set against any of the things I think could help pull the economy out of its rut, this means more economic stagnation.

Along with this will come a process of defining prosperity down. All the wise heads will tell us that 8 or 9 percent unemployment — maybe even 10 percent — is the “new normal”, and that only irresponsible people want to do anything about the situation.

So what I see is years of terrible job markets, combined with political paralysis.
I hope I’m wrong about all this. But my sense is that to have any hope of breaking out of this trap, Obama and company have to take risks — they have to propose new initiatives that might not pass, and be prepared to run against the do-nothing Republicans if the initiatives fail. That’s not happening now; as best as I can tell, the administration strategy is to insist that only a few minor course corrections are needed, and to wait for the jobs to start coming in.
Maybe they’ll get lucky. But hope is not a plan.

What can the rest of us do? Progressives have to keep the pressure on. The time for trusting the administration to do what’s necessary is past — all indications are that it won’t, not on its own. But maybe, just maybe, the president can be brought to see the danger he’s running by playing it safe.

I have worried from the beginning, that Obama doesn't have the courage to lead; he's stuck in a "safe" territory. Now we're stuck with him.
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WTO Ten Years After

Ten years ago I was in Seattle during the WTO protests. I went downtown during my lunch break to see what was going on... It was an unreal sight to see police armed to the teeth and protesters breaking windows and burning garbage cans, and singing songs while blocking intersections...

In the local news we heard only of the "violence" that was taking place. No analysis on why the protesters were against so-called free trade. It was a freely and widely accepted paradigm: unfettered capitalism, free trade, winner take all parade to the finish.

Jon Talton writes in today's Seattle Times that the protesters were right all along...

We've come a long way, baby.

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Why I Stopped Shopping at Amazon

Couple years ago when I was taking classes at UW I bought all my books at the University Book Store. I liked going there to browse, feel and smell the books. Sometimes I would buy a children's book for my daughter, or another notebook for the endless notes I took in class.

Several of my class mates said they bought all their school books on Amazon, because they were so much cheaper than at the local book store (and that is a consideration when you spend $100 per book!). I was skeptical at first - I am loyal to local stores and shops as much as is feasible. Although I had purchased several things at Amazon in the past, I had never bought school books there. But money talks. Or so I thought.

In 2006 I purchased a book on mass media law that saved me about $25 by bying it on Amazon. I thought I was clever. What I didn't realize was that the book I bought was previous year's edition (the only one available at Amazon at the time) and it did not include some important changes that I needed in my class. I contacted Amazon to return the book and buy the next edition (which had become available by then). They told me that I could not return it for full credit for some BS reason that I cannot remember, but if I shipped it back I could receive a partial credit (approximately $25). After wrangling with Amazon on the phone a few times I returend the book and bought the new edition at University Book Store for $100.

I never received the partial credit from Amazon for returning the book. I have not bought anything from Amazon since. I still love University Book Store.

Below is another horror story by Steve Brown, who bought a hair color product from Amazon and was overcharged shipping costs.

Amazon Horror

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Glenn Beck

Glenn Beck kertoo radiossa, kuinka Amerikassa eletaan pelottavia aikoja. Dollarin arvo laskee - menettaa koko arvonsa ehka jo huomenna, ehka viiden vuoden kuluessa. Ei ole mitaan tehtavissa. Mutta ehka sittenkin: aina on mahdollisuus valita uudelleen (kuten esim. valtakunnan vaaleissa). Toivo taytyy pitaa elossa. Kun Hitler tuli valtaan ihmiset olivat toivottomia Saksassa, kertoo Beck. Ja silloin saksan markka joutui syoksykierteeseen... Mutta Amerikan ei pida luovuttaa, jokaisen amerikkalaisen velvollisuus on pelastaa vapaa maailma hitlereista ym. totalitarismin kannattajista! (Tassa yhteydessa vihjataan epasuorasti Obaman yhtalaisyyksiin Hitlerin kanssa.)

Glenn Beck on suosittu puhuja seka TV:ssa etta radiossa. Jopa Sarah Palin on kertonut haluavansa hanet varapresidenttiehdokkaakseen (!). Beck on emotionaalinen puhuja joka saa ihmiset tunteilemaan Amerikan hyvyydesta ja amerikkalaisten paremmuudesta muuhun maailmaan nahden. Hanen sanansa uppoavat niihin kansan syviin riveihin, joissa on uskonnollisia ja huonosti koulutettuja ihmisia. Beckilla menee itsekin tosiseikat sekaisin, mutta ei yksityiskohdat tai historian faktat ole ennenkaan saaneet estaa oikean asian voittokulkua. Jumala on kanssamme. Kuka voisi meita estaa?

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Jokaisen aidin painajainen

Olen seurannut torniolaistyton kohtaloa Suomessa ahdistuneena; terve tytto kuoli ilmeiseen laakareiden valinpitamattomyyteen. Kuinka nain voi kayda Suomessa?

Itsellani on 12-vuotias perusterve tytto joka on sairastanut flunssaa jo monta viikkoa; ensin tavallista flunssaa ja sitten ilmeisesti sikainfluenssaa. Valilla han on sairastanut keuhkoputken tulehduksen, ja hetken jo luulimme, etta hanella olisi myos aivokalvon tulehdus. Ei sentaan, onneksi.

Viiden viikon aikana olimme yhteydessa sairaanhoitajaan pari kolme kertaa puhelimitse. Tytto kavi laakarissa kahdesti; kerran ensiavussa, jossa otettiin keuhkokuvat ja todettiin keuhkoputken tulehdus johon han sai heti laakkeet, toisella kertaa tavallisella vastaanotolla toissapaivana, jossa todettiin etta kyseessa on "vain" flunssa (taalla ei enaa testata H1N1 virusta, sill tapauksia on niin monta). Huoli oli suuri, silla olin juuri lukenut torniolaistytosta. Oma lapseni on kuitenkin paranemaan pain.

Iltasanomista ote torniolaistyton viimeisista hetkista:

Äiti kertoo kirjeessään, että hän pääsi lääkärin puheille vasta viimeisen puhelun aikana, noin tuntia ennen tytön kuolemaa. Tuolloin tytön hengitys oli katkonaista ja hänen otsansa oli kostea.

- Lääkäri sanoi, että tänne ei kannata tulla, koska he ei täälläkään voi tähän aikaan mitään tehdä, kun esim. labra on kiinni. Hän sanoi, että olkaa kotona, jossa tyttö nukkuu yön yli. Ja tulkaa aamulla, jos silloin on tarvetta.

- Sanoin, että taas silloin mennään Tornion terveyskeskuksen kautta päivystyksestä jonotuksen avulla mahdollisesti saatavan lähetteen kanssa. Keskustelu kesti 20 minuuttia.

Tyttöni kuoli n. tunnin kuluessa. 8-vuotias perusterve tyttö kuoli kotonaan maanantai-iltana. Ensihoidon tullessa paikalle häntä ei enää saatu pelastettua.

Kammottava tilanne! Ilmeisesti kuolema olisi ollut estettavissa, jos lapsen sairaus olisi otettu vakavammin. Oma kokemukseni taalta Seattlesta on ollut paljon positiivisempi. Laakariin on saanut yhteytta ja puhelimeen vastattu. Eihan siihen labraa tarvita jos lapsen hengitys ei kulje - siihen tarvitaan ensiapua! Heti!

Syva osanottoni torniolastyton vanhemmille.

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Where is Fazer or Marabou When You Need It?

Hershey’s Ain’t Chocolate


by Bennett Gordon in UTNE

Tags: Science and Technology, Environment, health, chocolate, food, The Smart Set

Hershey’s chocolates, for the most part, aren’t really chocolate. They’re “the terrible bastard children of chocolate and corporate frugality,” according to Meg Favreau, writing for The Smart Set. Hershey’s, and other industrial chocolate makers, mix their real coco butter with other vegetable oils. This makes it cheaper, but it also makes it something other than chocolate. For now, the FDA requires Hershey’s to call its industrial byproducts “chocolate flavored” instead of real chocolate, according to Favreau, though the website refers to the candies as “chocolate bars” and “milk chocolate.” That may change, however, as industry groups lobby the FDA to relax its definition of “chocolate” to include other vegetable oils.

I wish I could find Fazer chocolate here. There was a Scandinavian grocery store in Ballard, which sold Fazer but they are closed now. I can find Marabou at IKEA, but it's a long way to get there...

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