Kyoto and Climate Change

Yhdysvallat ei ole allekirjoittanut Kioton ilmastosopimusta (oli kylla mukana neuvotteluissa, mutta Bushin tultua valtaan irtisanoutui pikimmiten). Samana paivana viime vuonna kun Kioton sopimus tuli voimaan, Seattlen pormestari Greg Nickels teki aloitteen, jossa amerikkalaiset kaupungit ryhtyvat itse alentamaan paastoja, odottelematta liitovaltion mukaantuloa. Nyt on mukana jo 219 kaupunkia. Tarkoitus on alentaa kasvihuone-kaasuja 7% alle 1990 tason. Se ei tietysti yksin riita, mutta on ainakin suuntaa-antava ja ehka saa huomion kohdistumaan tahan polttavaan ja ajankohtaiseen ongelmaan.

Kun katselee minkalaisilla autoilla suurin osa amerikkalaisista ajaa, huolestuu entisestaan. Vaikka bensan hinta on noussut jo kaksinkertaiseksi Bushin kaudella (varsinainen oljy-mies!), ihmiset eivat edelleenkaan vaikuta kovin huolestuneilta. He ajavat suuren suurilla maastoautoilla ja pick-upeilla ja bensaa palaa hulvattomasti. Ja oljy-yhtiot tekevat aivan mielettomia voittoja! Pikkuhiljaa alkaa kuitenkin nakya merkkeja siita, etta ihmiset ajattelevat kahdesti, ennen kuin ostavat suuren auton. Fordin valtavat tila-autot eivat enaa mene kaupaksi niin kuin viela vuosi, pari sitten. Nyt puhutaan jo vaihtoehdoista, kuten sahko/bensa-autoista.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2002888182_kyoto25m.html

Climate Change

Climate change is perhaps the biggest challenge of the 21^st century for politicians, scientists and all life on Earth, because of the potential impact on the planet of accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. These gases occur naturally and have been a part of the “cycle of life” on the planet from the beginning, but since the Industrial Revolution (early 1800’s) man-made (anthropogenic) gases have increased to a point that the Earth’s natural systems cannot absorb and recycle them any longer. The resulting climate change and global warming will impact all ecosystems from the oceans to the forests, agriculture, human health, water resources, biodiversity, and the weather. The main cause of anthropogenic greenhouse gases is the use of fossil fuels, such as oil and coal.

The challenge to scientists is that by nature science is based on observation of natural phenomena, and there is always some uncertainty to science. It is hard to prove that climate change is caused by human activities, because it takes years to observe the changes, and there are so many variables that could impact the results. But the evidence is mounting and now most scientists do agree on the basics of climate change.

The challenge to politicians is that they are under pressure to make decisions based on short-term goals and national priorities, not on global, long-term problems. But as the science gets more specific with data proving that climate change is happening and its impacts are affecting all of us, it will become easier (or at least more urgent) to make tough decisions to alter the course of global warming.

According to two University of Helsinki professors, Atte Korhola and Pekka Kauppi, (Pekka Kauppi: University of Helsinki; Professor of environmental science & policy; Atte Korhola, University of Helsinki; Professor in Arctic Global Change) the impacts of climate change are already so far advanced, that the Kyoto Protocol in its current state is not sufficient to curb global warming. As an example they mention the melting of permafrost in the Arctic, which is already occurring very rapidly, and which can release huge amounts of methane gas into the atmosphere, thus exacerbating the greenhouse effect. They suggest that by the time Kyoto agreement is finished (2012), a new, much stronger international agreement must be in place. According to Korhola decreasing gas emissions is not enough at this point: States must invest heavily in developing new energy sources, such as fusion and hydrogen, and move away from fossil fuels. We must also put more emphasis on planting new trees/forests, which work very efficiently as carbon sinks and reservoirs (ecosystem services), such as Kenya’s Green Belt movement directed by Wangari Maathai (Suomen Kuvalehti, #17, 2005).

The international community must respond to climate change in unison, because climate change has global impact. The Kyoto Protocol was the first such attempt, but it failed to get USA (biggest greenhouse gases emitter) to go along. The US economy is very much based on fossil fuel consumption and there wasn’t enough political will for Americans to join Kyoto. Because of the nature of international environmental law – mostly soft law – it is extremely difficult to come up with binding laws to curb climate change. There are too many conflicting issues at hand: North vs. South, consumerism vs. Common concern, costs vs. benefits of change. All approaches need to be interdisciplinary in scope: economic, political, scientific, educational, ecological, cultural etc.