Tammikuussa kirjoitin taman jutun Amerikan talouden tulevaisuudennakymista. En arvannutkaan kuinka lahella ennusteeni oli!
Uusi 1929?
Kolme ja puoli vuotta sitten valtiotieteen professorini ennusti, etta paraikaa eletaan uutta 20-lukua: rikkaat rikastuvat ja innostuvat ahneuksissaan yltiopaisiin, jopa laittomiin rahankeruutemppuihin. Meno jatkuu niin kauan kunnes tulee uusi, koko maailmaa koskeva lama (alkaen Yhdysvalloista), jonka syovereista sitten ryomitaan pitkaan.Nyt alkaa nakya jo kaikille tuon yltiopaisyyden seurauksia. Pankit menettavat jattimaisia summia rahaa typerien riskilainojen takia, asuntokaupat tyrehtyvat, tyottomyys uhkaa, osakekurssit romahtavat...Viela yritetaan pumpata ilmaa Amerikan markkinoille, mutta rakenteet ovat niin vaaristyneet, etta pienet laastarit eivat tehoa pitkan paalle. Yhdysvallat alkaa olla niin velkaantunut, dollarin kurssi niin huono ja ulkomaan kauppa niin alijaamainen, etta pieni ruiske kuluttajien kukkaroon ei paljon hetkauta.Turvavyot kiinni!
--- T
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Taking Responsibility
"Voters have to shoulder a great deal of the blame for the economic mess the country is in. Too many were willing, for whatever reasons, to support politicians who spat in the eye of economic common sense. Now the voodoo that permeated conservative economic policies for so many years has come back to haunt us big-time."
Bob Herbert
Bob Herbert
Friday, September 26, 2008
Demolishion Accomplished
The following is from Paul Krugman's blog this morning:
September 26, 2008, 9:57 am
Demolition accomplished
A few more thoughts about the incredible scene described in today’s Times (great reporting, by the way):
In the Roosevelt Room after the session, the Treasury secretary, Henry M. Paulson Jr., literally bent down on one knee as he pleaded with Nancy Pelosi, the House Speaker, not to “blow it up” by withdrawing her party’s support for the package over what Ms. Pelosi derided as a Republican betrayal.
“I didn’t know you were Catholic,” Ms. Pelosi said, a wry reference to Mr. Paulson’s kneeling, according to someone who observed the exchange. She went on: “It’s not me blowing this up, it’s the Republicans.”
Mr. Paulson sighed. “I know. I know.”
How did we get to this point? It’s the culmination of many past betrayals.
First of all, we have the Republican Study Committee blowing things up with a complete nonsense proposal — solving the crisis with a holiday on capital gains taxes. How is that possible? Well, if a party runs on economic nonsense for 25 years, eventually many of its foot soldiers will be people who actually believe the nonsense.
More specifically, though, the failure to get a deal reflects the betrayals of the Bush years. Democrats weren’t going to trust Henry Paulson, because behind him they see the ghost of Colin Powell (and Paulson’s “all your bailout are belong to me” proposal, aside from being bad economics, showed an incredible tone-deafness.)
And after the way the Bushies and their allies double-crossed the Democrats again and again in the aftermath of 9/11 — demand national unity, then accuse you of being soft on terrorists anyway — there’s no way Pelosi and Reed will do the responsible but unpopular thing unless the Republicans agree to share ownership.
So what we now have is non-functional government in the face of a major crisis, because Congress includes a quorum of crazies and nobody trusts the White House an inch.
As a friend said last night, we’ve become a banana republic with nukes.
Blog
September 26, 2008, 9:57 am
Demolition accomplished
A few more thoughts about the incredible scene described in today’s Times (great reporting, by the way):
In the Roosevelt Room after the session, the Treasury secretary, Henry M. Paulson Jr., literally bent down on one knee as he pleaded with Nancy Pelosi, the House Speaker, not to “blow it up” by withdrawing her party’s support for the package over what Ms. Pelosi derided as a Republican betrayal.
“I didn’t know you were Catholic,” Ms. Pelosi said, a wry reference to Mr. Paulson’s kneeling, according to someone who observed the exchange. She went on: “It’s not me blowing this up, it’s the Republicans.”
Mr. Paulson sighed. “I know. I know.”
How did we get to this point? It’s the culmination of many past betrayals.
First of all, we have the Republican Study Committee blowing things up with a complete nonsense proposal — solving the crisis with a holiday on capital gains taxes. How is that possible? Well, if a party runs on economic nonsense for 25 years, eventually many of its foot soldiers will be people who actually believe the nonsense.
More specifically, though, the failure to get a deal reflects the betrayals of the Bush years. Democrats weren’t going to trust Henry Paulson, because behind him they see the ghost of Colin Powell (and Paulson’s “all your bailout are belong to me” proposal, aside from being bad economics, showed an incredible tone-deafness.)
And after the way the Bushies and their allies double-crossed the Democrats again and again in the aftermath of 9/11 — demand national unity, then accuse you of being soft on terrorists anyway — there’s no way Pelosi and Reed will do the responsible but unpopular thing unless the Republicans agree to share ownership.
So what we now have is non-functional government in the face of a major crisis, because Congress includes a quorum of crazies and nobody trusts the White House an inch.
As a friend said last night, we’ve become a banana republic with nukes.
Blog
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Change is In the Air...
People are finally getting pissed off. It's a start.
- T
WASHINGTON — Americans’ anger is in full bloom, jumping off the screen in capital letters and exclamation points, in the e-mail in-boxes of elected representatives in the nation’s capital.
“I am hoping Congress can find the backbone to stand on their feet and not their knees before BIG BUSINESS,” one correspondent wrote to Representative Jim McDermott of Washington.
The New York Times
- T
WASHINGTON — Americans’ anger is in full bloom, jumping off the screen in capital letters and exclamation points, in the e-mail in-boxes of elected representatives in the nation’s capital.
“I am hoping Congress can find the backbone to stand on their feet and not their knees before BIG BUSINESS,” one correspondent wrote to Representative Jim McDermott of Washington.
The New York Times
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Police State
"Please understand what you are looking at when you look at Sarah "Evita" Palin. You are looking at the designated muse of the coming American police state." Article
- Naomi Wolf -
I am not the only one fearing for the coming of Police State here in America. Naomi Wolf, a respected author and feminist, wrote a chilling article about just such an idea/plan. She says that Sarah Palin would be just the perfect new face for The State. Paranoia? Perhaps. But if Barack Obama does not win the election (and he should easily because of all the problems we're facing) one could argue that the elections were not fair but fixed. Watch...
--- T
- Naomi Wolf -
I am not the only one fearing for the coming of Police State here in America. Naomi Wolf, a respected author and feminist, wrote a chilling article about just such an idea/plan. She says that Sarah Palin would be just the perfect new face for The State. Paranoia? Perhaps. But if Barack Obama does not win the election (and he should easily because of all the problems we're facing) one could argue that the elections were not fair but fixed. Watch...
--- T
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Seven Deadly Sins
Robert Kuttner, co-editor of the American Prospect, writes about the 'seven deadly sins' that caused the market collapse in the US. It is difficult for a lay person to understand the mess we're in, but he explains it in such a way that it makes more sense.
Even though I predict that a lot of bad, ugly, painful, maddening things are up ahead due to the market melt-down (like high unemployment, loss of social security, worse health care crisis, education in turmoil, less wealth overall), I think that there is a silver lining in all of this. People are going to have to question the status quo and will become more aware of their unsustainable way of life: consumerism and ultra-capitalism. They will look to alternatives.
(Or America will become a police-state!)
--- T
"Why regulate? As we have seen ever since the sub-prime market blew up in the summer of 2007, government cannot stand by when a financial crash threatens to turn into a general depression -- even a government like the Bush administration that fervently believes in free markets. But if government must act to contain wider damage when large banks fail, then it is obliged to act to prevent damage from occurring in the first place. Otherwise, the result is what economists term "moral hazard"-- an invitation to take excessive risks."
"That's why, no matter how much taxpayer money the Federal Reserve and the Treasury keep pumping in, they can't turn dross back into gold. The next administration and the Congress need to return the financial economy to its historic task of supplying capital to the real economy -- of connecting investors to entrepreneurs -- and shut down the purely casino aspects of the system that have only enriched middlemen and passed along huge risks to everyone else."
"We're talking about a Roosevelt-scale counterrevolution here. But nothing less will prevent the financial collapse from cascading into Great Depression II. And the public should never again forget that this needless collapse was brought to us by free-market extremists."
Whole Article
Even though I predict that a lot of bad, ugly, painful, maddening things are up ahead due to the market melt-down (like high unemployment, loss of social security, worse health care crisis, education in turmoil, less wealth overall), I think that there is a silver lining in all of this. People are going to have to question the status quo and will become more aware of their unsustainable way of life: consumerism and ultra-capitalism. They will look to alternatives.
(Or America will become a police-state!)
--- T
"Why regulate? As we have seen ever since the sub-prime market blew up in the summer of 2007, government cannot stand by when a financial crash threatens to turn into a general depression -- even a government like the Bush administration that fervently believes in free markets. But if government must act to contain wider damage when large banks fail, then it is obliged to act to prevent damage from occurring in the first place. Otherwise, the result is what economists term "moral hazard"-- an invitation to take excessive risks."
"That's why, no matter how much taxpayer money the Federal Reserve and the Treasury keep pumping in, they can't turn dross back into gold. The next administration and the Congress need to return the financial economy to its historic task of supplying capital to the real economy -- of connecting investors to entrepreneurs -- and shut down the purely casino aspects of the system that have only enriched middlemen and passed along huge risks to everyone else."
"We're talking about a Roosevelt-scale counterrevolution here. But nothing less will prevent the financial collapse from cascading into Great Depression II. And the public should never again forget that this needless collapse was brought to us by free-market extremists."
Whole Article
Friday, September 19, 2008
Kevin Phillips
Now for a little bit of background. We're not just looking at a real estate mess. Over the last quarter century, the total of public and private credit market debt in the United States -- most of it, in fact, is private -- has more than quintupled from $8 to $48 trillion, the biggest such orgy in world history. Over that period, domestic financial debt - the money borrowed by the financial sector for expansion, consolidation, empire-building, leverage, exotic mortgages, gambling, you name it - swelled from just $1 trillion to some $14 trillion. Employing these economic steroids, the financial sector ballooned itself from 14-15% of what back in the mid-1980s was the Gross National Product to 20-21% in 2004 of the newer Gross Domestic Product calculation. In the meantime, the once-dominant manufacturing sector fell far behind, dropping to just 12% of GDP. In a nutshell, the economy has been hijacked in recent decades by the very groups who now purport to have remedies - Wall Street, from whence Paulson emerged, and the money-bubbling, don't regulate the dangerous practices Federal Reserve Board, from whence Bernanke comes.
Full article
Full article
Greed
Greed greed greed greed greed greed
Greed greed greed greed
Greed greed greed
Greed greed
Greed
The financial collapse was so predictable and logical. The American economy has been unsustainable for quite some time with so much foreign debt, so little regulation to ensure that certain rules be followed, and the overarching greed that kept the rich getting richer by taking bigger risks - gambling with abandon.
Now we, the People, are supposed to pay for their mistakes? There will be nothing left.
This is a paradigm shift.
To be continued...
--- T
Greed greed greed greed
Greed greed greed
Greed greed
Greed
The financial collapse was so predictable and logical. The American economy has been unsustainable for quite some time with so much foreign debt, so little regulation to ensure that certain rules be followed, and the overarching greed that kept the rich getting richer by taking bigger risks - gambling with abandon.
Now we, the People, are supposed to pay for their mistakes? There will be nothing left.
This is a paradigm shift.
To be continued...
--- T
Monday, September 15, 2008
We're Number One!
By Paul Krugman
We’re number what?
This is trivial, sort of. But today, John McCain declared that “the fundamentals of our economy are strong” — and also explained that we’re “the most innovative, the most productive, the greatest exporter, the greatest importer.”
Exactly why we’re boasting about being the biggest importer isn’t clear — not to get all mercantilist, but buying a bunch of stuff isn’t a great achievement. And last I looked, we weren’t the greatest exporter; that distinction went either to the European Union, or, if you restrict yourself to countries, Germany.
I guess the reason I flag this is that it’s part of that tendency of Americans to assume that we’re by definition the best — the kind of attitude which lets people get away with warning –warning! — Americans that the likes of Hillary would give us French health care. (If only.)
We’re number what?
This is trivial, sort of. But today, John McCain declared that “the fundamentals of our economy are strong” — and also explained that we’re “the most innovative, the most productive, the greatest exporter, the greatest importer.”
Exactly why we’re boasting about being the biggest importer isn’t clear — not to get all mercantilist, but buying a bunch of stuff isn’t a great achievement. And last I looked, we weren’t the greatest exporter; that distinction went either to the European Union, or, if you restrict yourself to countries, Germany.
I guess the reason I flag this is that it’s part of that tendency of Americans to assume that we’re by definition the best — the kind of attitude which lets people get away with warning –warning! — Americans that the likes of Hillary would give us French health care. (If only.)
Thursday, September 11, 2008
A Mad Society
"Is American society a healthy one, and are those having difficulties adjusting to it mentally ill? Or is American society an unhealthy one, and are many Americans with emotional difficulties simply alienated rather than ill? For Fromm, "An unhealthy society is one which creates mutual hostility (and) distrust, which transforms man into an instrument of use and exploitation for others, which deprives him of a sense of self, except inasmuch as he submits to others or becomes an automaton." Fromm viewed American society as an increasingly unhealthy one, in which people routinely experience painful alienation that fuels emotional and behavioral difficulties."
Bruce E. Levine questions the sanity of our society - and how we deal with those with "mental illness". Perhaps they are not crazy at all - maybe the environment that surrounds us is. Read full article below.
--- T
Bruce E. Levine
Bruce E. Levine questions the sanity of our society - and how we deal with those with "mental illness". Perhaps they are not crazy at all - maybe the environment that surrounds us is. Read full article below.
--- T
Bruce E. Levine
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Varapresidenttiehdokas
Republikaanit ovat innostuneet uudesta varapresidenttiehdokkaastaan. Sarah Palin on nuori (44), kaunis ja ampuu pyssylla. Mita muuta voisi odottaa tulevalta "vapaan maailman" johtajalta (kun McCain kuolee ennen aikojaan sydankohtaukseen tai syopaan)? Silla ei tunnu olevan merkitysta, etta Palinilla ei ole mitaan kokemusta ulkopolitiikasta (paitsi etta han on Alaskan kuvernoori, ja Alaska on melkein Venajan vieressa), ei mitaan kokemusta liitovaltion hallinnosta, ei ymmarrysta talouspolitiikasta, uskoo kreationismiin, kannattaa susien ampumista lentokoneista, abortin sallimisen poistamista (jopa raiskaus- tai insestitapauksessa), ja uskoo Jumalan johtavan Irakin sotaa.
Ihan hyva tyyppi. (Tasta tulee pitka syksy...)
- T
Ihan hyva tyyppi. (Tasta tulee pitka syksy...)
- T
Monday, September 01, 2008
Amy Goodman Arrested!
Arrest
Amy Goodman was arrested at the Republican National convention today in St. Paul! She spent last week in Denver covering the Democratic convention and this week in Minneapolis-St. Paul reporting on the Republican convention, but the police arrested her and two Democracy Now! producers as they were reporting on protests at the convention. She is a well-known reporter and a journalist. How outrageous!
--- T
Amy Goodman was arrested at the Republican National convention today in St. Paul! She spent last week in Denver covering the Democratic convention and this week in Minneapolis-St. Paul reporting on the Republican convention, but the police arrested her and two Democracy Now! producers as they were reporting on protests at the convention. She is a well-known reporter and a journalist. How outrageous!
--- T
Viimeinen laulu
Olin Suomi-kirkolla paivana muutamana. Vanhempi rouvashenkilo kertoi seurakunnalle, etta hanen veljensa oli hiljattain kuollut eika kukaan ollut kaynyt hakemassa vainajaa ruumishuoneelta, jotta voisi pitaa hautajaiset. Veljen ruumis virui pakastimessa viikkokausia. Hanella ei ollut perhetta eika sukulaisia (veli asui Pohjois-Ruotsissa, eika viranomaisilla ollut tietoa Amerikan-sisaresta). Lopulta sisko sai kuulla veljensa kohtalosta ja jarjesti hautajaiset ja muistotilaisuuden. Sisko oli aika jarkyttyneessa tilassa pitkan aikaa. Han luki seurakunnalle runon joka kumpusi veljen muistosta. Siskon aani sarkyi kesken varssyn, eika han saanut luettua runoa loppuun.
--- T
Sydameni viimeinen laulu
Usein ajattelen kuolemaa,
paivaa viimeista ja lahdon yota.
Lieko pitka kipujen tie
kesken kiireita ja kesken tyota?
Pitka taipale on ollut maan,
parasta kun oli, oli tuskaa.
Soudin myrskyn seka tyynen veet,
joskus poltti kuumat kyyneleet.
Nyt on syksy, tiella Lapin ruskaa.
Rikasta on ollut elama.
Sanan seka runon mies sain olla.
Tokko kateheni kerran jaa
joku kallis, taysi tahkapaa,
kun on puintipaiva vainiolla.
Annoin iskuja ja myoskin sain,
riitaa kasteesta ja paljon muuta.
Joskus katkeratkin maljat join,
senkin elamani tiella koin:
Veljet viekkaat naulas ristin puuta.
Olen vanha, ilta tullut on,
viherkaihi, hamaryytta silmiin.
Ehka tarpeen koulu tamakin.
Tiedan kasi suuren Mestarin
viime metrit tekee miehen filmiin.
Joutaisin jo taalta minakin,
pitkat matkat autiota tiesta.
Menneet ovat veljet virran taa,
ehka siella joku odottaa
viimeisinta vanhan kaartin miesta.
Viime portin eessa kyselen
lieko selvat tilieni sivut?
Kaikki, kaikki anteeksiko saan
jottei rantamalla kuolon maan
enaa painona oo tunnon kivut.
Usein ajattelen kuolemaa,
kun on yo ja unen lintu karkaa.
Kadet ristiin liitan, rukoilen,
ole Herra turva syntisen
viela kerran auta - pappiparkaa.
[tuntematon]
--- T
Sydameni viimeinen laulu
Usein ajattelen kuolemaa,
paivaa viimeista ja lahdon yota.
Lieko pitka kipujen tie
kesken kiireita ja kesken tyota?
Pitka taipale on ollut maan,
parasta kun oli, oli tuskaa.
Soudin myrskyn seka tyynen veet,
joskus poltti kuumat kyyneleet.
Nyt on syksy, tiella Lapin ruskaa.
Rikasta on ollut elama.
Sanan seka runon mies sain olla.
Tokko kateheni kerran jaa
joku kallis, taysi tahkapaa,
kun on puintipaiva vainiolla.
Annoin iskuja ja myoskin sain,
riitaa kasteesta ja paljon muuta.
Joskus katkeratkin maljat join,
senkin elamani tiella koin:
Veljet viekkaat naulas ristin puuta.
Olen vanha, ilta tullut on,
viherkaihi, hamaryytta silmiin.
Ehka tarpeen koulu tamakin.
Tiedan kasi suuren Mestarin
viime metrit tekee miehen filmiin.
Joutaisin jo taalta minakin,
pitkat matkat autiota tiesta.
Menneet ovat veljet virran taa,
ehka siella joku odottaa
viimeisinta vanhan kaartin miesta.
Viime portin eessa kyselen
lieko selvat tilieni sivut?
Kaikki, kaikki anteeksiko saan
jottei rantamalla kuolon maan
enaa painona oo tunnon kivut.
Usein ajattelen kuolemaa,
kun on yo ja unen lintu karkaa.
Kadet ristiin liitan, rukoilen,
ole Herra turva syntisen
viela kerran auta - pappiparkaa.
[tuntematon]
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